Cyclic climate changes and fish productivity

The book considers relationships between climate changes and fish productivity of oceanic ecosystems. Long-term time series of various climatic indices, dynamics of phyto- and zooplankton and variation of commercial fish populations in the most productive oceanic areas are analyzed. Comparison of climate index fluctuations and populations of major commercial species for the last 1500 years indicates on a coherent character of climate fluctuations and fish production dynamics.

A simple stochastic model is suggested that makes it possible to predict trends of basic climatic indices and populations of some commercial fish species for several decades ahead. The approach based on the cyclic character of both climate and marine biota changes makes it possible to improve harvesting of commercial fish stocks depending on a phase (ascending or descending) of the long-term cycle of the fish population. In addition, this approach is helpful for making decisions on long-term investments in fishing fleet, enterprises, installations, etc.

The results obtained also elucidate the old discussion: which factor is more influential on the long-term fluctuations of major commercial stocks, climate or commercial fisheries?

Книга на английском языке

Содержание

INTRODUCTION

Chapter 1
ON CLIMATE REPEATING PATTERN
Short-term climatic time series
Long-term climatic time series
Temperature fluctuations reconstructed by 180 in the Greenland ice core
Temperature fluctuations for 1400 years (from 500th to 1900th) reconstructed by annual growth rings of pine tree (Pinus silvestris) in the North of Sweden
Moisture / Aridity fluctuations for 1480 years (500th to 1980th) reconstructed by growth rings of North California bristlecone pine tree {Pinus aristata)
Analysis of long-period time series spectra
Fluctuations in populations of sardine and anchovy according to the data of fish scales analysis in bottom
sediment layers of California upwelling
Analysis of reconstructed and experimental spectra
Time-Frequency spectral Analysis of long-period climatic series
Comments in brie

Chapter 2
GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE PERIODICITY
Features of Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI) dynamics
Cyclic fluctuations of Balkhash lake volume
Cyclic nature of floods in Neva river estuary
Cyclic fluctuations of Oregon precipitation along the west coast of North America
Cyclic fluctuations of Barents Sea and Sea of Okhotsk ice cover
North-Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic climate indices
Cyclic changes of snow accumulation in Antarctica
Cyclic fluctuations of global temperature and the phenomenon of human-induced global warming

Chapter 3
CLIMATE FLUCTUATION PERIODICITY AND MAJOR COMMERCIAL
FISH POPULATIONS
Dynamics of climatic indices and catches of the major
commercial species of the North Atlantic region
Climate and fluctuations of herring and cod populations in the Northeastern Atlantic
Atlantic spring-spawning herring and climate fluctuations
North-East Arctic cod and climate fluctuations
On dependence of cod stock recruitment abundance on the spawning stock
Dynamics of Atlantic waters inflow and herring and cod stock fluctuations
Cod stock and ice regime fluctuations in Arctic region
Forecasting of herring and cod population fluctuations in Arctic region
Dynamics of climatic indices and catches of the major commercial fish in Pacific region
Ice regime and pollock biomass dynamics in the Bering sea
Climate and fluctuations in population of Pacific salmon
Population abundance and salmon growth in the ocean
Climate and dynamics of local salmon populations

Chapter 4
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ABUNDANT POPULATIONS
Bakun's "triad" hypothesis
"Optimal environmental window" hypothesis
Lasker's hypothesis of "stable ocean"
Cushing's "match / mismatch" hypothesis
Comments in brief

Chapter 5
POSSIBLE REASONS FOR POPULATION FLUCTUATIONS IN MAJOR COMMERCIAL FISH SPECIES
On the trophic status of sardines and anchovies
Humboldt Current
Comments in brief
California upwelling
Kuroshio-Oyashio region
On the fishery effect on Japanese sardine population and catches
Japanese anchovy and Japanese flying squid
Comments in brief
Northeastern Pacific and Gulf of Alaska
South-Benguela upwelling
A relationship between zooplankton dynamics and climatic changes
Comments in brief

Chapter 6
DYNAMICS OF THE ANCHOVY POPULATION IN THE PACIFIC REGION
Peruvian anchoveta
Comparative dynamics of anchovy catches in the Pacific region

Chapter 7
MODELING
Justification of the stochastic model of climate fluctuations
Description of a formal model of climatic fluctuation periodicity
Modeling procedure for predictive curves

Chapter 8
FORECASTING OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE MAIN COMMERCIAL SPECIES POPULATION
The approach to forecasting commercial fish population dynamics
Synthesis of predictive trends
Predictive trends for the first group of species
Predictive trends for the second group of species
Comments in brief

CONCLUSION

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

REFERENCES